16 May Why Rodney is in trouble

Common wisdom has it that voters don’t elect opposition parties; they defeat governments. My sense is that voters have had enough of Rodney MacDonald. They don’t hate him, but they haven’t warmed to him, and they’re ready to see him go.

In voters’ eyes, he suffers from comparison with Premier Hamm, his predecessor, perhaps the best premier of our generation. The fact that his government fell on a question of massive deficit financing adds to the problem. Reining in the provincial debt was one of Hamm’s signature achievements.

Rodney’s defeat is not a sure thing. It’s hard to identify the seats he will lose to ensure an NDP victory. Nevertheless, it seems the likeliest outcome at this point.