Tagged: Gilles Duceppe
Since the debate, we’ve kept an eye on searches for the five party leaders, using the Google Trends tool that famously notices ‘flu outbreaks before the Centres for Disease control. (Previous examples here and here.) Extreme caution is required, but look what happened to Jack Layton yesterday.
On its face, this means a lot of interest in Jack. I assume that’s mainly a result of the found-in story, but a friend argues otherwise:
[I]ndications from previous elections (check 2008) seem to suggest [it reflects] popularity as well, though I don’t know why. It’s quite a spike, though.
It is quite a spike, and quite a leap to assume it reflects an increase in popularity, given that it occurred in the 24 hours after the campaign took a salacious incoming missile. Still, it’s intriguing—and noteworthy that Layton searches have consistently outpaced those for Harper, which consistently outpace those for Ignatieff, May, and Duceppe. Searches for Iggy and Harper remained flat yesterday.
A Nova Scotian who spent close to half his life in Quebec writes:
Harper’s undoing is Jean Charest.
Quebecers know they are going to throw out the scandal-plagued Charest as soon as they can, but they can’t do this with a strong BQ in Ottawa because it throws the federalist-nationalist balance out of whack.
Quebecers like to balance a strong federalist parliament in Ottawa with a nationalist Assembly in QC, and vice versa. They can’t vote Liberal on Monday because, well, Liberals are screwing up in QC. They also know that Harper can’t be seen to kowtow to Quebec, so they’d rather not have him in power or with too much influence in QC. Also, he’s not sympatico. But electing too many BQ’s when the PQ is destined for power at home is crazy because that gives far too much clout to the separatists. Everybody knows that.
It must have been quite a problem. But then Jack Layton won the French-language debate with smarts, charm and a street-savvy yet credible accent that made Duceppe sound like a fop. And so the orange wave began.
Ipso facto duodenum.
I agree with one caveat: According to some polls, the orange wave in Quebec had begun even before the debates.
Google’s Trend feature lets users track and compare the frequency of searches for particular words or phrases in any country, or worldwide. This chart compares searches within Canada for the full names (first and last) of the five leaders contesting the May 2 Federal Election.
I used Gilles Duceppe as the standard, so you could say Stephen Harper scored 12.6 duceppes; Jack Layton 7.8 duceppes; Michael Ignatieff 7.2 duceppes; and Elizabeth May 4.0 duseppes. (Sorry about the confusing colour assignments. Google picked ’em.)