09 Jun 29 : 14 : 9 : 0 : 0

That’s 29 New Democrats, 14 Progressive Conservatives, and nine Liberals, no independents, and no Greens: a narrow but workable majority for the New Democrats.

The simple reality is that voters want to turf Rodney MacDonald, and they have decided to do that by turning to the New Unscary Democrats.

The surprise here is that the Liberals will get so few seats. MacNeil has run a good campaign, and he will increase the party vote from its worst-ever showing in 2006. But the Liberal vote is spread thinly around the province, and so, in the language of political science profs, it’s inefficient. It will not produce seats in proportion to its popular share.

Seats to watch:

Hants West

Ron Russell’s old seat was the closest three-way race in the province last time. Chuck Porter beat Liberal Paula Lunn by 65 votes, and the N-dip by less than 500. With a major shift to the NDP, they will take it.

Pictou Centre

John Hamm’s old seat will fall, completing the NDP sweep of the once bedrock Tory county.

Truro-Bible Hill

“She may be a flake, but she’s our flake.” Daughter of a popular high school teacher, Lenore Zann is a local celebrity who never left her roots behind. She reacted with dignity when clueless Liberals circulated a topless screen capture from one of her less edifying films, and she has campaigned harder than the other two. This is a close call, but contrarian gives it to the New Democrat.

Cumberland North

Running alone, former Tory Ernie Fage would hold the seat, but he will split the declining Conservative vote with Tory Keith Hunter, and the rising NDP tide will sweep New Democrat Brian Skabar into office.

Chester-St. Margaret’s

Judy Streatch won by 1100 votes last time. This time she will lose to New Democrat Denise Patterson-Rafuse.

Cape Breton

Expect little change. The fact Darrell Dexter spent a good part of Monday in Cape Breton North tells you Cecil Clarke is not as safe as we assumed, but with a 2200-vote margin last time, contrarian has to believe he will hang on. Likewise the always likable Alfie MacLeod in CB West.

The Liberals should have been able to win Victoria-The Lakes, but they nominated the wrong guy. Former MLA Gerald Sampson is viewed as a mean-spirited partisan. His best hope is for New Democrat Fraser Patterson to siphon enough votes from the respected and well-liked Tory incumbent, Keith Bain, for Sampson to sneak up the middle.