29 Apr Ekos seat projections

Ekos, the first pollster to notice the NDP wave, has released its latest seat projections for Monday’s vote, based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the 2008 election.

Ekos latest telephone survey of 2,910 adult Canadians, including 2,672 decided voters, conducted between April 25-27, 2011, showed 34.8 percent nationally for the CPC; 27.5 for the NDP; 22.3 Liberals; 6.8 for the Greens; 6.1 for the Bloc Québécois (which contests only Quebec seats); and 2.5 per cent for independents or other parties. The results have a mathematical sampling error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The Conservatives are thought to be more likely to vote — they are older and express more commitment to their choice — and this could be worth a premium of 1-2 percentage points.

Ekos projects eight NDP seats in Atlantic Canada, three more than the party holds now. The sample size in our region is small, so this prediction has to be viewed as shaky. Potential pickups include South Shore – St. Margaret’s, Dartmouth – Cole Harbour, and Halifax West in Nova Scotia, and St. John’s South – Mount Pearl in Newfoundland. If you see any number of them fall to the Dipsters Monday night, something big could be afoot.