19 Oct How to vote strategically in Nova Scotia

Posted at 01:18h in That's life by

You’re tired of Stephen Harper winning elections even though 60+ percent of the country votes for more progressive policies. And you’re fed up with Harper’s multifarious abuses, cataloged here, here, here, and here. So you want to vote strategically, by casting your ballot in a way that maximizes the chances of a Conservative defeat.

Opportunities for voting strategically in Nova Scotia are limited. The Conservative Party of Canada has become so unpopular here, it may well be shut out of all the province’s 11 ridings.

In only two ridings do the Conservatives have any realistic chance of victory:  Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley and Central Nova. Voting strategically in those contests means voting Liberal, since that’s the party with the best chance of beating the Conservatives.

In the remaining nine ridings, according to the website VoteTogether.com, you are free to vote for the progressive party of your choice, because there is no danger of the Conservatives winning those seats. They are contests between the Liberals and the NDP, so take your pick—based on the party you prefer or your assessment of the local candidates.

I agree with this approach, and this riding analysis. With reservations, I will vote for public health officer and family physician Monika Dutt, the NDP candidate in Sydney-Victoria, because I think she would make an interesting addition to parliament. But I would vote for Liberal Mark Eyking in a heartbeat if I thought there were any danger of the Conservatives winning his seat. There isn’t (nor is there any chance Dutt will win).

In fact, there are only three Nova Scotia seats where the outcome is in doubt, due to tight races between the Liberals and the NDP: Halifax; South Shore-St. Margaret’s; and Dartmouth-Cole Harbour.

Cape Breton-Canso, Halifax West, Kings-Hants, Sydney-Victoria, and West Nova are safe Liberal seats. Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook is safe for the NDP.

(StrategicVoting.ca, another website, makes different recommendations, but it has many seats in play for the Conservatives that aren’t, and declares other seats safe, like Halifax and Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, that aren’t. The mistakes seem to flow from placing too much weight on the 2011 results. There is a Liberal swing underway in this election that was absent four years ago.)

My prediction? In Nova Scotia, Liberals 9, NPD 2, Conservatives 0.

Nationally, Liberals 140, Conservatives 124, New Democrats 70, Bloc 3, Greens 1.