26 Feb Probably Zann, possibly Burrill, unlikely Wilson

Unless everything I’m hearing is wrong, Sackville-Cobequid MLA Dave Wilson will not be leader of the Nova Scotia New Democratic Party when votes are counted Saturday, despite having been endorsed by almost every establishment figure from the Darrell Dexter Government.

Or more likely because they endorsed him.

By all accounts it’s a three-way race among Wilson, Truro-Bible Hill-Millbrook-Salmon River MLA Lenore Zann, and former Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley MLA Gary Burrill.

So great is rank-and-file resentment at the Dexter Government’s top-down style and lack of progressive substance, Wilson has little room to grow in any redistribution of second place votes.

It didn’t help when Wilson’s campaign received a token fine for prematurely accessing a party voting list, contrary to election rules, especially after suspicion fell on party staffer Mat Whynott, a former MLA and Wilson supporter who should have been scrupulously neutral.

In the preferential system the party is using, the third-place candidate’s ballots will be redistributed according to their second choices. If Burrill places third, the lion’s share of his second-place votes will go to Zann. Likewise, Zann’s second-place votes will favour Burrill.

If Wilson places third—and this could happen—it’s possible most of his second-place votes will go to Zann, because Dexter loyalists perceive Burrill backers to be hard-core, anti-Dexter activists. Zann’s campaign also appears better organized than Burrill’s.

We may never know, because Nova Scotia’s NDP follows the anti-democratic practice of keeping detailed results secret. Party Mandarins don’t believe members should know who they voted for, because such knowledge would allegedly be too divisive. (One can only imagine how a party that treats its own members this way would handle Freedom of Information requests once in office.) [Correction: A party official informs me detailed results will be projected on the convention screen for all to see. My apologies for the error.]

A defeat will be humiliating for Wilson and the rest of the old guard. It will also be a test of character. Will Wilson and his followers embrace the new leader in a spirit of unity, or will they retreat in a snit, possibly even abandoning their legislative seats?