27 Feb Readers blow back on the NDP leadership race — with a correction

Within hours of my posting a prediction that NDP establishment candidate Dave Wilson would not win the leadership vote to be tallied Saturday, several readers pointed out that cabinet-minster-turned-pundit Graham Steele, who knows 10 times more about the provincial NDP than I ever will, thinks he will do just that.

Steele’s reasoning, as I understand it, is that moderates vastly outnumber lefties in the NDP. This may be true, but it assumes opposition to Wilson is based on left-right considerations. In my observation, the malaise in the party goes well beyond that. It’s not just Howard Epstein’s wing of the party that resented the authoritarian, centrally controlled culture of the Dexter government.

Moderate New Democrats are still New Democrats. Dexter’s hard tack to the centre left them wondering exactly how the first NDP government in Nova Scotia differed from centuries of Liberal and Tory rule. Many party members who consider themselves moderate recoil from re-anointing the crowd that bolloxed up their first-ever chance at government.

A reader whom I take to be a Wilson campaign insider, took “a few issues” with my post. I reproduce his comments here as much for what it shows about anger within the Dexter 2.0 camp as for the cogency of its arguments, which are mostly ad hominem:

Dislike of the Dexter government within the rank and file is overblown. As Graham Steele points out, the moderate wing of the party outnumbers the left wing of the party. However, the left is far more vocal.

Second, polling by the leadership campaigns show that a first choice Lenore vote does not automatically mean a second vote for Gary. And the same with Gary supporters. In fact, many Gary supporters detest Lenore Zann. I can bet you Howard Epstein would have Dave Wilson as his second choice. [Howard? Howard? Are you listening? Care to comment? +PD]

Why? Wilson is a team player. So is Gary.

It’s Lenore and her supporters about to rip up their membership cards if Dave Wilson wins. Lenore is all about Lenore. She has little grasp of the legislature and its procedures. She’s all soundbites. She isn’t reliable. She doesn’t show up for meetings. She doesn’t do a lick of work in caucus. And takes credit for other people’s work. [*Ouch*]

A Zann leadership would be a shit show and many party members know it.

It’s not Gary or Dave’s people that would bolt from the party. Nor will they abandon their seats. However, talk of people like Peterson-Rafuse taking a hike if Dave wins. She hates Dave. As does Lenore. And the two have caused Maureen MacDonald major headaches with their childish, petulant behaviour. Boycotting the legislature during QP and tweeting from a local mall when they didn’t think they were getting enough questions in the legislature for example.

This reader is certainly correct that no candidate can count on 100 percent of any other candidate’s second place votes. If one candidate is very close on the first ballot, they can still win even if the third place finisher’s second choice ballots break 10-1 against her or him. A Cape Bretoner whom I take to be a Burrill supporter offers, “a bit more nuance” on this point:

Wilson will win on the first ballot or he will lose.

With the party establishment firmly on his side (including Graham Steele, posing as a disinterested observer on CBS CBC last night), he could amass enough support to win outright.

If not, he’s toast. A majority of Burrill and Zann supporters would have placed him third on the preferential ballot.

A third reader, whom I know to be a Burrill supporter, rejects everything my Wilson man said except his criticisms of Lenore, which are, “all legit, right down the the suggestion a Lenore leadership [may] be a shit show.”

He hastens to add, however, “I know many a Gary supporter who would consider a Wilson leadership to be the straw that broke the camel’s back.”

One thing all three factions should bear in mind. The next leader of the NDP is unlikely ever to form a government. It’s a rebuilder the party is electing, and in rebuilding, the party needs distance from the Dexter government as much as the province does.

Finally, a correction from a self-described party Mandarin:

I’d like to correct your misconception about how we will report the leadership results. The complete numerical results of the first and, if necessary, second ballots will be released as the winner is announced. We will put the numbers up on the projection screens in the ballroom, and they will be public knowledge.

Delighted to hear that. Apologies for the error. The party quietly changed the rule a week ago.

We’ll know soon enough. The convention schedule calls for the outcome to be announced at 2:30 pm.