Here are the results of the last 2,876 interviews conducted Friday, Saturday, and Sunday by EKOS Research, the first polling company to notice the NDP surge and the company with the most accurate seat projection last year. The numbers include only decided and leaning voters, and they include about 1,000 interviews conducted yesterday. Based on these numbers, EKOS pollster Frank Graves issued the following hedge-heavy seat projection:\ CPC:   130 to 146 seats NDP:   103 to 123 seats LPC:    36 to 46 seats BQ:    10 to 20 seats GP:    1 seat For those wanting a point estimate, Graces suggests taking the midpoint of the...

Here's a bit of inside baseball, of interest only to hard core Cape Breton political junkies and residents of Cape Breton North and Victoria - The Lakes. When the federal election got underway last month, local tongues wagged and eyebrows fluttered at news that twice-defeated one-term Liberal MLA Gerald Sampson was campaigning for Harper Guy Cecil Clarke. Sampson has not exactly been a hot political property since he publicly condemned Victoria County voters as "liars" following his first defeat in 2006. Nevertheless, this was a prominent lifelong Liberal working for a CPC candidate. Aye, but here's the rub: Cecil's campaign workers are...

In the latest Angus Reid poll, 49 percent of Liberal voters and 36 percent of NDP voters expressed a willingness to consider voting for a candidate other than their true preferences, in order to “avoid a specific outcome.” If you are one of those Liberal, New Democratic, or erstwhile Progressive Conservative voters who would like to avoid the specific outcome of a certain dangerous demagogue getting an unfettered majority in the House of Commons, you may be wondering how to vote Monday. This post is for you. Contrarian’s Guide to Strategic Voting in Nova Scotia With three-way races and a still dynamic vote...

Today's massive Wikileak dump of US diplomatic cables from Canada includes 131 from the US Consulate in Halifax. For anyone interesting in foraging, here are the subject headings with links to the cables. Please let me know what you find. 2010: 2009:

[caption id="attachment_7878" align="alignright" width="200" caption="Nice guy, as socialists go"][/caption] When Darrell Dexter's New Democrats swept to power in 2009, it fell to Harold D. Foster, the US Consul General in Halifax, to profile the new premier for his State Department colleagues. His assessment, in a cable sent one week after Dexter's government took office, was among the diplomatic cables released by Wikileaks Thursday. Moneyquote: Dexter is highly regarded by friends and political foes alike as a nice, down-to-earth kind of guy who has the interests of his constituents at heart. However, his victory came about primarily through his skill as a...

On the evening of March 26, 2003, the US Consulate in Halifax sent two "sensitive but unclassified" cables to the State Department in Washington assessing "the view from Atlantic Canada" on the Iraq War begun by George W. Bush three days earlier. Then-Consul General Steve Kashkett also reported on a series of anti-war demonstrations in Halifax. Following a week of discussions with then Lieutenant Governor Myra Freeman, various ministers in the John Hamm cabinet, local newspaper editors, a political pollster,  businesspeople, and "some of our key military contacts here," Kashkett came away with "the impression of a profoundly conflicted public." [caption id="attachment_7856" align="alignright" width="350" caption="Steve Kashett, now vice president of the American Foreign Services Association, welcomes Hillary Clinton to the State Department Headquarters in Washington on her first day as Secretary of State"]KASHKETT-350C[/caption] "Canadians in the atlantic provinces, most of whom consider themselves to have a staunchly pro-U.S. world view on most issues, are deeply divided over the war in iraq," he wrote. One of two cables points out that although university groups had vocally opposed the war, demonstrations had drawn hundreds, not thousands or tens of thousands, of participants. "Of course, Halifax is a medium-sized provincial town with a smaller population than Toronto or Montreal, but the lukewarm response to the anti-war movement reflects deeper emotions here," Kashkett concluded. The other cable, sent an hour earlier, reported on three demonstations at the consulate's Purdy's Wharf II offices, and on a reception the consulate was forced to cancel at his residence after police warned that student groups planned to disrupt it. "As is usually  the case in the Maritimes, the protestors are conducting  themselves in a restrained, mostly non-violent manner," wrote Kashkett, who appeared to have detailed information from various local police. "We are coordinating closely with the RCMP, the Halifax Regional Police, and our own building security people to  minimize any risk," he reported.  "No protesters have targeted the CG residence as of yet, but RCMP contacts have confirmed that the location of the residence is known to local anti-war activists." Most of the sources referred to in the cables are unnamed, but the first cable reported that Rear Admiral Glenn Davidson, Commander of Canadian Forces Atlantic, "confided to Consul General today that there is fairly strong support for the war within the military services,"  and "many of his navy officers and enlisted personnel feel that they should be part of the war effort."  The cable says Davidson believed the Chretien Government's refusal may harm Canadian-US military "interoperability," a matter of "highest importance" to the Canadian military. The text of the first cable follows:
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HALIFAX 0091 SIPDIS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED DEPT FOR WHA/CAN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC KPAO CA US SUBJECT: CANADIAN PUBLIC OPINION ON THE IRAQ WAR: THE VIEW FROM ATLANTIC CANADA REF: HALIFAX 0086 1. SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - ENTIRE TEXT. 2. (SBU) CANADIANS IN THE ATLANTIC PROVINCES, MOST OF WHOM CONSIDER THEMSELVES TO HAVE A STAUNCHLY PRO-U.S. WORLD VIEW ON MOST ISSUES, ARE DEEPLY DIVIDED OVER THE WAR IN IRAQ. IN DISCUSSIONS DURING THE PAST WEEK WITH A WIDE RANGE OF PEOPLE INCLUDING THE LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR, PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT MINISTERS, LOCAL NEWSPAPER EDITORS, A POLITICAL POLLSTER, BUSINESSPEOPLE, AND SOME OF OUR KEY MILITARY CONTACTS HERE, CG HAS GOTTEN THE IMPRESSION OF A PROFOUNDLY CONFLICTED PUBLIC. HALIFAX AND OTHER KEY ATLANTIC CITIES HAVE FAIRLY VOCAL STUDENT GROUPS AT THE MAJOR UNIVERSITIES WHICH HAVE BEEN OUTSPOKEN IN CRITICIZING THE WAR, AND WHICH HAVE ORGANIZED A NUMBER OF ANTI- WAR DEMONSTRATIONS (REFTEL) SINCE THE MILITARY CAMPAIGN STARTED. BUT THESE DEMONSTRATIONS HAVE ONLY DRAWN PROTESTERS IN THE HUNDREDS, NOT THE THOUSANDS OR EVEN TENS OF THOUSANDS THAT HAVE MARCHED ACROSS OTHER, LARGER CANADIAN CITIES. OF COURSE, HALIFAX IS A MEDIUM-SIZED PROVINCIAL TOWN WITH A SMALLER POPULATION THAN TORONTO OR MONTREAL, BUT THE LUKEWARM RESPONSE TO THE ANTI-WAR MOVEMENT REFLECTS DEEPER EMOTIONS HERE. 3. (SBU) OUR CONTACTS SAY THAT MOST ATLANTIC CANADIANS HAVE SERIOUS RESERVATIONS ABOUT ANY POLICY POSITION DICTATED FROM OTTAWA THAT PUTS CANADA AT ODDS WITH THE UNITED STATES. THIS PART OF CANADA IS PROUD OF THE FACT THAT IT HAS CLOSE TIES OF HISTORY, FAMILY, TRADE, AND CULTURE TO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH MANY PEOPLE SHARE THE ANTI-WAR ACTIVISTQSQ CONCERNS OVER THE UTILITY AND TIMING OF THIS MILITARY CAMPAIGN AND OVER THE PERCEPTION THAT THE U.S. GOVERNMENT IS ACTING UNILATERALLY WITHOUT U.N. SANCTION, A STRONG CURRENT WITHIN LOCAL OPINION MAINTAINS THAT, NOW THAT THE WAR HAS BEGUN, FOR BETTER OR WORSE, IT IS IMPORTANT FOR CANADA TO STAND BESIDE ITS U.S. ALLY. MANY ATLANTIC CANADIANS BELIEVE THAT THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN OUR TWO COUNTRIES OVER WHETHER TO INITIATE MILITARY ACTION WAS ESSENTIALLY A DISPUTE OVER TACTICS, NOT OVER THE ULTIMATE GOAL OF ENDING THE INTERNATIONAL THREAT POSED BY AN OUTLAW REGIME IN BAGHDAD. TACTICAL DIFFERENCES, THEY ARGUE, SHOULD NOT BE THE CAUSE A SERIOUS RIFT BETWEEN TWO LONGSTANDING PARTNERS. 4. (SBU) AMBASSADOR CELLUCCIQS PUBLIC REMARKS YESTERDAY TO THE EFFECT THAT AMERICANS ARE DISAPPOINTED WITH CANADAQS FAILURE TO SUPPORT THE WAR HAVE GIVEN MANY ATLANTIC CANADIANS A JOLT. ALTHOUGH SOME DO APPEAR TO FEEL INSULTED AT SUCH CRITICISM, MANY OF OUR CONTACTS HAVE QUIETLY TOLD US THAT THEY BELIEVE THE AMBASSADOR WAS RIGHT TO EXPRESS HIS CONCERNS AND TO WARN OF THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE MIGHT BE LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES IN THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP. WHILE PEOPLE HERE ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE RAMIFICATIONS OF U.S. ACTIONS, THERE IS ALSO A PALPABLE DISCONTENTMENT WITH THE ACTIONS AND STATEMENTS OF PM CHRETIEN AND HIS GOVERNMENT. ATLANTIC CANADIANS BELIEVE THAT CROSS- BORDER COMMERCE AND TOURISM ARE VITAL TO THIS REGION, AND MANY FEAR THAT THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IS ADOPTING POSITIONS THAT COULD JEOPARDIZE THESE ESSENTIAL BILATERAL RELATIONS. 5. (SBU) PUBLIC OPINION IN THE ATLANTIC PROVINCES TENDS TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN ELSEWHERE IN CANADA, PARTLY BECAUSE HALIFAX IS HOME TO THE CANADIAN NAVYQS ATLANTIC FLEET AND TO MANY MILITARY FAMILIES WHICH HOLD THE U.S. MILITARY FORCES IN HIGH REGARD. REAR ADMIRAL GLENN DAVIDSON, COMMANDER OF CANADIAN NAVAL FORCES HERE, CONFIDED TO CG TODAY THAT THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG SUPPORT FOR THE WAR WITHIN THE MILITARY SERVICES. MANY OF HIS NAVY OFFICERS AND ENLISTED PERSONNEL FEEL THAT THEY SHOULD BE PART OF THE WAR EFFORT. ACCORDING TO RADM DAVIDSON, THE CANADIAN MILITARY ATTACHES THE HIGHEST IMPORTANCE TO DEVELOPING ITS "INTEROPERABILITY" AND COOPERATION WITH THE U.S. MILITARY SERVICES, AND MANY MILITARY PEOPLE HERE FEAR THAT CANADAQS REFUSAL TO PARTICIPATE IN IRAQ WILL DAMAGE THAT CLOSE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP IN THE FUTURE. 6. (SBU) THE HEAD OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED PUBLIC OPINION POLLING ORGANIZATION IN NOVA SCOTIA TOLD CG THAT A MAJORITY OF CANADIANS IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY ARE PREPARED TO SET ASIDE THEIR QUALMS ABOUT THE U.S. DECISION AND ARE LEANING TOWARDS SUPPORT FOR THE U.S. WAR EFFORT, NOW THAT HOSTILITIES HAVE BEGUN. IN HIS VIEW, OTTAWA COULD EASILY MOVE PUBLIC OPINION IN THIS DIRECTION IF IT CHOSE TO DO SO. HE COMMENTED THAT THERE MAY BE MORE PRO-U.S. SENTIMENT IN OTHER PARTS OF CANADA THAN CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE CASE, BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL BECAUSE THOSE OPPOSED TO THE WAR TEND TO SPEAK THE LOUDEST AND GET THE MOST MEDIA ATTENTION. KASHKET
The text of the second cable follows after the jump:

In the last few years, I've made several business trips to the Faroe Islands, a rocky archipelago that rises spectacularly from the North Atlantic, about halfway between Iceland and Scotland. The population of 48,917 is about one-third of Cape Breton's; the land area of 1,399 square km barely tops that of Richmond County, NS. Search Google Images for "Faroe Islands," and you'll turn up dozens of photos far more beautiful than the snapshot below, of a rocky point known as Tinganes that sticks into the harbour at Torshavn, the country's* largest town. Tinganes sits two blocks from the hotel where I...

Contrarian reader Ritchie Simpson asks: What is it with civic politicians in the Maritimes? They’ve jumped on the concert bandwagon with abandon and are flinging money around the way Keith Moon used to fling furniture. The long serving and long suffering mayor of Summerside is a tad closer to the chopping block than HRM’s potentate but it’s troubling the ease with which processes are ignored and checks are written. The Roman circuses were used to keep the civic populace quiet, peaceful, and accommodating. Maybe it’s time we threw a few politicians to the lions....

In response to this, Contrarian reader Corey Clamp asks: Another question, albeit more uncomfortable: Why does it seem acceptable to most that these funds have been lost? We often hear people talking about abuses of our social assistance system: EI fraud, welfare mothers collecting our hard earned tax dollars for nothing, etc., etc. I work in community and have witnessed some of these 'frauds' that others complain of (food money being used for power? Oh my!), but I also witness every day the daunting bureaucracy these individuals must face in order to get their $514 to $850 dollars/month. We seem to worry that...

Contrarian is not the Nova Scotia blog of record, but I don't want HRM Council's latest act of craven irresponsibility to pass uncommented upon. Neither does Contrarian reader Lindsay Brown, who writes: What is it about the Halifax lifestyle that produces more embarrassing stuff in just two weeks than you can put in a single opaque garbage bag? What am I missing? The facts are simple. Nova Scotia was a pioneer in trash sorting, diversion, and recycling, thanks to visionary provincial legislation. These measures were necessary to slow the pace of landfill growth,  given the horrendous obstacles to siting new...