Since the debate, we've kept an eye on searches for the five party leaders, using the Google Trends tool that famously notices 'flu outbreaks before the Centres for Disease control. (Previous examples here and here.) Extreme caution is required, but look what happened to Jack Layton yesterday. On its face, this means a lot of interest in Jack. I assume that's mainly a result of the found-in story, but a friend argues otherwise: [I]ndications from previous elections (check 2008) seem to suggest [it reflects] popularity as well, though I don't know why. It's quite a spike, though. It is quite a spike, and...

01 May, 2011

CBC Sunday Edition guest host Robert Harris chided Elly Alboim this morning for the national press corps's failure to pick up on the NDP surge until the polls made it obvious. [caption id="attachment_7960" align="alignright" width="150" caption="Alboim"][/caption] Alboim responded, reasonably, that reporters couldn't be expected to pick up on a phenomenon before it existed. (He did credit Chantel Henert for noticing it a week before her colleagues.) Alboim went on to speculate that the NDP's dramatic rise in the polls reflected, not a sudden blooming of love for Layton, but widespread anti-Harper sentiment that coalesced around Layton following his good performance in the debates. If...

01 May, 2011

A Nova Scotian who spent close to half his life in Quebec writes: Harper's undoing is Jean Charest. Quebecers know they are going to throw out the scandal-plagued Charest as soon as they can, but they can't do this with a strong BQ in Ottawa because it throws the federalist-nationalist balance out of whack. Quebecers like to balance a strong federalist parliament in Ottawa with a nationalist Assembly in QC, and vice versa. They can't vote Liberal on Monday because, well, Liberals are screwing up in QC. They also know that Harper can't be seen to kowtow to Quebec, so they'd rather...

30 April, 2011

What to make of the Layton's remarkable late-campaign surge in Quebec? Contrarian friend Richard Stephenson suggests an explanation: We have been told repeatedly that the voters are tired of these frequent (and expensive) elections. I suspect many are tired of the stories the Bloq and the Liberals have been telling. Having voted consistently for the Bloq over the past decade, maybe the people of Quebec are tired of the story they've been sold, and are now looking for a Federalist party they can trust...

21 April, 2011

Google's Trend feature lets users track and compare the frequency of searches for particular words or phrases in any country, or worldwide. This chart compares searches within Canada for the full names (first and last) of the five leaders contesting the May 2 Federal Election. I used Gilles Duceppe as the standard, so you could say Stephen Harper scored 12.6 duceppes; Jack Layton 7.8 duceppes; Michael Ignatieff 7.2 duceppes; and Elizabeth May 4.0 duseppes. (Sorry about the confusing colour assignments. Google picked 'em.)...

21 April, 2011

After listening to wrongness guru Kathryn Schultz's TED talk on the counterintuitive blessings of making mistakes, it seems an opportune moment to get this out of the way. A quiet but astute observer of provincial and national politics writes: I meant to ask you where you get your drugs from. They are obviously very powerful. I mean, how else can you explain your federal election campaign outcome prediction? That would be this prediction: I look forward to their stories a month from now acknowledging April 12 as the turning point when a majority slipped from Harper’s grasp, and a minority Liberal Government became...

20 April, 2011

Contrarian is baffled by the reaction of Ottawa-based press pundits to tonight's debate. Most said Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff failed to score against Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, who, they averred, held his own. I think this is a major misreading, and the polls will quickly show it to be off base. Try the old silent test: watch any portion of the debate with the sound turned down. Harper looked miserable, especially when forced to listen to anyone direct criticism at him. I am not comfortable commenting on politicians' physical traits, but Harper's expression did not serve him well, and likely reinforced...

12 April, 2011

The following message greeted Scott Gillard, constituency assistant to Halifax Chebucto NDP MLA Howard Epstein, when he logged onto his Facebook account Tuesday: [Maybe you should "like"] Michael Ignatieff. Many who like Jack Layton like him. Well, Scott, for the sake of the country, maybe you should....

04 August, 2010