A Nova Scotian who spent close to half his life in Quebec writes: Harper's undoing is Jean Charest. Quebecers know they are going to throw out the scandal-plagued Charest as soon as they can, but they can't do this with a strong BQ in Ottawa because it throws the federalist-nationalist balance out of whack. Quebecers like to balance a strong federalist parliament in Ottawa with a nationalist Assembly in QC, and vice versa. They can't vote Liberal on Monday because, well, Liberals are screwing up in QC. They also know that Harper can't be seen to kowtow to Quebec, so they'd rather...

30 April, 2011

On the morning after the English Language leader's debate, CBC Radio's James Cudmore ended his reaction piece from Brixton's British Pub in Ottawa with an audible smirk: "One blessing: the campaign just has three weeks left to go." [audio:http://contrarian.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/debate_react2.mp3|titles=debate_react] This is one Harper meme (among several) that many press gallery reporters have embraced with alacrity: the May 2 election is an unnecessary, money-wasting, irritating, imposition on voters who have better things to do than contemplate national issues and chose among those who want to do them. It is scarcely an original observation that, as we trudge begrudgingly to the polls, citizens of Tunisia,...

24 April, 2011

Google's Trend feature lets users track and compare the frequency of searches for particular words or phrases in any country, or worldwide. This chart compares searches within Canada for the full names (first and last) of the five leaders contesting the May 2 Federal Election. I used Gilles Duceppe as the standard, so you could say Stephen Harper scored 12.6 duceppes; Jack Layton 7.8 duceppes; Michael Ignatieff 7.2 duceppes; and Elizabeth May 4.0 duseppes. (Sorry about the confusing colour assignments. Google picked 'em.)...

21 April, 2011

After listening to wrongness guru Kathryn Schultz's TED talk on the counterintuitive blessings of making mistakes, it seems an opportune moment to get this out of the way. A quiet but astute observer of provincial and national politics writes: I meant to ask you where you get your drugs from. They are obviously very powerful. I mean, how else can you explain your federal election campaign outcome prediction? That would be this prediction: I look forward to their stories a month from now acknowledging April 12 as the turning point when a majority slipped from Harper’s grasp, and a minority Liberal Government became...

20 April, 2011

Writing in Democracy, Jonathan Chait plumbs American right's aversion to taxes: The conservative movement’s embrace of taxophobia is probably the most important development in American political life over the last three decades. It is the one quality that most distinguishes American conservative elites from conservative elites in other countries. They’re more likely to question climate science, more sanguine about people dying for lack of health insurance, and less xenophobic (which is rather nice). But above all—far above all—they hate taxes. Understanding the American Right is critical for Canadians, because if voters make the mistake of giving Stephen Harper a majority on May...

16 April, 2011

Buried deep in yesterday’s reaction to my Contrarian post about the debate (I say MI won and SH lost) was this perspicacious comment from reader Heather Holm Ignatieff’s body language and tone of voice matched what he was saying, unlike Harper’s. He showed an internal congruency and authenticity that you just don’t see in Harper. This is what bothers many people about Harper: you can’t read the man. His soothing voice and his passive face mask whatever it is that he is really feeling. Sure Harper “did well,” but it was acting – and from a script. It...

14 April, 2011

Contrarian is baffled by the reaction of Ottawa-based press pundits to tonight's debate. Most said Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff failed to score against Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, who, they averred, held his own. I think this is a major misreading, and the polls will quickly show it to be off base. Try the old silent test: watch any portion of the debate with the sound turned down. Harper looked miserable, especially when forced to listen to anyone direct criticism at him. I am not comfortable commenting on politicians' physical traits, but Harper's expression did not serve him well, and likely reinforced...

12 April, 2011

I wrote yesterday that only one Canadian news source had taken note of a Robert Kennedy Jr. column on HuffingtonPost slamming Stephen Harper. In fact, the CBC's Kady O'Malley took note in a tweeet (which is what @kady does): So did Jane Tabor in the Globe and Mail. Neither piece turned up in a Google search at the time of my post. O'Malley took umbrage at my post, arguing that RFK's "entire piece was pure crap" and "a kennedy being staggeringly wrong on facts isn't news." This is a strange standard for news selection, especially coming from Canada's Parliamentary press gallery, where...

03 March, 2011

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., son of a famous man, former congressman, president of the Waterkeeper Alliance, and professor at Pace University, used a column in the Huffington Post to laud the CRTC for resisting efforts by the PMO to lift Canada's ban on false news. Kennedy links the PM's efforts to Sun Media's plans for a Canadian version of Fox News. Moneyquote: Harper, often referred to as "George W. Bush's Mini Me," is known for having mounted a Bush like war on government scientists, data collectors, transparency, and enlightenment in general. He is a wizard of all the familiar tools of...

02 March, 2011

Faced with the conspicuous failure of the war on drugs, the Harper Government proposes to escalate it, as if doing more of something that failed is likely to succeed. Portugal took a different approach. On July 1(!), 2001, that country decriminalized the use and possession of all illicit drugs, a move many feared would accelerate social decay. The British Journal of Criminology has published a study of what actually happened: This paper examines the case of Portugal, a nation that decriminalized the use and possession of all illicit drugs on 1 July 2001. Drawing upon independent evaluations and interviews conducted with 13 key stakeholders in...

28 January, 2011
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