The latest poll from Don Mills of Corporate Research Associates shows the NDP at 44 percent. More importantly, it shows them in first place in the rural mainland. Some will say the NDP vote is highly concentrated in metro, where they will "waste" votes by winning with unnecessarily huge majorities. Elections are won by seat totals, not vote totals. Still, 44 percent is well into majority territory. In the last 14 Nova Scotia elections, no party has ever won more than 40 percent of the vote and failed to win a majority. John Hamm won a majority in 1999 with 39%...

01 June, 2009

Minutes of the April 9 meeting of the Mainland Nova Scotia Building and Construction Trades Council confirm that the council tried to circumvent statutory campaign limits. A member of another political party described the minutes to Contrarian Saturday evening, and agreed to forward copies, on condition of anonymity. While waiting for the minutes to arrive, Contrarian sought reaction from NDP campaign director Matt Hebb, who said he had no knowledge of the donations. Today, the original source forwarded the minutes shown above, shortly after the NDP announced it was returning $45,000 in Trades Council donations. The source ascribed the delay in sending...

01 June, 2009
crest-logoCREST Halifax has uploaded  a video of last Tuesday's all-party debate on environmental issues, which was sponsored by the Ecology Action Centre. The video of the two-hour debate is divided into 10 segments. Unfortunately, they are not annotated, so contrarian can't point you to the particular segments where Howard Epstein tried to defend the NDP's plan to subsidize coal-fired electricity, the many places where Green Party deputy leader Brendan MacNeill oversold the concept of feed-in tariffs for wind power, and the spot where the NDP, the Greens, and the Liberals all but nixed the proposed Donkin coal mine.
31 May, 2009

Cape Breton's young, tech-savvy, music aficionados discuss the provincial election's impact on their favorite industry. Hint: fiddles haven't been mentioned....

31 May, 2009
In describing the uncertainty around the June 9 election this morning, CBC Radio's Jean LaRoche said many voters would abandon the Tories, and most of those votes would of course go to the Liberals. This is conventional wisdom, based on a left-right spectrum that runs from the NDP, through the Liberals, to the Tories. There's a good chance it's wrong.
30 May, 2009
NDP leader Darrell Dexter today promised to provide 1,000 home insulation grants for low to modest income households. This is a much better idea than Dexter's plan to subsidize carbon production by removing the provincial share of HST from home electricity bills. Here's why:
  • Insulation grants will cut the province's CO2 emissions, while the carbon subsidy will increase them.
  • Insulation grants will target homeowners most in need, while the carbon subsidy will go disproportionately to the well-off, because they use more electricity.
  • Insulation grants will create jobs for carpenters, plumbers, electricians, and local businesses, while the carbon subsidy will have little or no employment impact.
  • Insulation grants will produce permanent reductions in home heating costs, while savings from the carbon subsidy will last only as long as the tax break is in place.
29 May, 2009

With 10 days to go, a Liberal friend sums it up: Everyone I talk to expects an NDP  government. Everyone. They say, "Darrell's a good leader." They say, "it's his turn." I haven't heard a single person say they expect someone else to form the government. He could win a majority....

29 May, 2009

Liberal, NDP, and Green party reps at last night's election forum on environmental issues expressed grave reservations about letting Xstrata open its proposed undersea coal mine at Donkin, Cape Breton. CBC reporter Jennifer Henderson has tape of the exchange, which has the potential to blow into a major issue in Nova Scotia's coal communities. Guess what? They have a point. Donkin coal is too dirty to burn in our own power plants under current and planned emissions standards. Why should we export it to be burned elsewhere? Isn't that like issuing a license to pee in the far end of the...

27 May, 2009
windmills-s2 Kings South Green Party candidate and deputy leader Brendan MacNeill was the surprising star [*] of last night's all-party environmental forum. The Acadia environmental studies major, who already has an environmental technology diploma, came across as thoughtful, poised, well-prepared, persuasive. Unfortunately, like many Nova Scotia environmentalists, MacNeill has been seduced by the independent power producers' self-serving lobby for guaranteed, above-market rates for their product. After the jump, a brief explanation of why this approach is wrong-headed for Nova Scotia.  
27 May, 2009

You almost had to feel sorry for Howard Epstein as he struggled to defend the NDP's $28 million carbon subsidy at last night's all-party environmental debate, held at Dalhousie Medical School. Howard is a lifelong energy policy wonk. He knows it would be asinine to use millions in taxpayer dollars to create incentives for Nova Scotians to consume more coal-fired electricity. But alas, that's the heart of the NDP's energy strategy, driven no doubt by focus groups showing "ordinary" Nova Scotians are pissed off about rising power bills. Said Howard: The price signal is important, but you can't ignore the poor....

27 May, 2009
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