Dexter vs. Chisholm – a surprising look

I began this blog suggesting that voters are ready to turf Rodney MacDonald, and I've yet to hear anyone take strong issue with this observation. But if most people expect an NDP government, they're still reluctant to predict that outcome. After all, this is Nova Scotia, and an NDP victory has never happened before. It almost happened once, 11 years ago, when NDP leader Robert Chisholm (remember him?) nearly toppled Russell MacLellan, leading the N-Dips to 155,361 votes and 19 seats.  (The Liberals also got 19 seats, and 158,380 votes. As governing party, they were able to retain office.) In the last election, Darrell Dexter beat Chisholm's seat tally by one, but he has never surpassed Chisholm's '98 vote total.

A few factors contributed to Chisholm's 1998 surge:  Voter unease with Alexa McDonough had suppressed the NDP vote in previous elections;  Once Chisholm succeeded McDonough, pent-up voter interest in the NDP bloomed. At the time, voters were increasingly unhappy with the Liberals under Russell MacLellan, yet still too sour on the Tories to give the rather stiff newcomer John Hamm a try.